Elon Musk’s companies Tesla and SpaceX have seen a dramatic combined market capitalization loss of $1.5 trillion since mid-June. SpaceX’s shares dropped nearly 50% from their peak, while Tesla’s stock decreased by 18% following its recent earnings report. Investor focus is now shifting toward SpaceX’s upcoming earnings release and a significant lockup expiration for insiders, both due next week, which could introduce further volatility to the stock.

Market anxiety centers on SpaceX’s unique lockup arrangement that allows insiders to sell shares sooner than the typical 180-day window. After earnings on Tuesday, insiders will gain access to over 900 million shares, representing 20% of their locked stock, creating substantial selling pressure potential. Options pricing hints at a 15% anticipated stock move post-earnings, with implied volatility at 122, one of the highest across the S&P 500, signaling strong uncertainty.

Traders are weighing the dual risks of the earnings announcement and the early lockup release, which typically would decrease volatility post-earnings, but here may sustain or even increase it if insider selling is heavy. SpaceX’s options market displays elevated activity and volatility compared to Tesla, with some investors remaining optimistic as buying of call options outpaces puts, indicating bullish sentiment despite the recent price declines.

However, a split is emerging between smaller traders who are more aggressively optimistic and larger investors adopting a cautious stance. Among popular options trades are near-term calls with moderate strike prices, reflecting a preference for upside potential balanced with risk management. The evolving situation at SpaceX stands as a critical test for Musk’s market resilience amid broader tech sector pressures.