Lettuce prices experienced a historic drop in July, falling 16.4% from June, marking the largest single-month decline on record. This plunge was largely driven by a multistate cyclospora outbreak, which deterred consumers from purchasing the leafy green. Despite this steep decline, prices remain about 7.5% higher than a year ago. The overall consumer price index for food only showed a slight 0.1% increase for the month, highlighting the stark contrast in lettuce pricing.

Before the outbreak, lettuce prices had surged significantly due to factors like increased fertilizer costs linked to the Iran war and labor shortages caused by President Donald Trump’s mass deportations. These pressures contributed to a notable rise in production expenses, pushing lettuce prices to all-time highs earlier this summer. Experts liken the volatility in lettuce prices to recent fluctuations seen in egg costs, which soared due to bird flu outbreaks but have since decreased sharply.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration traced the cyclospora outbreak largely to iceberg lettuce processed at a Taylor Farms facility in Mexico, prompting a voluntary recall of associated products. This health scare caused several restaurant chains, including Cava and Sweetgreen, to report plunging customer traffic and lowered sales forecasts, even when their supplies were not contaminated. Chipotle also noted a 2 percentage point sales decline in late July tied to consumer concerns about the parasite.

Industry leaders such as Yum Brands acknowledged a meaningful short-term sales hit due to the outbreak but said sales showed signs of improvement in recent weeks. Despite the significant price drop, analysts warn consumers are unlikely to increase lettuce purchases immediately due to ongoing food safety fears. As one economist noted, the price decrease happens amid a situation where “nobody wants it,” reflecting unease that continues to weigh on demand despite reduced costs.