President Donald Trump stated that oil and gas prices, which have surged due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, are unlikely to decrease until immediately following the November midterm elections. Speaking at Joint Base Andrews on September 9, 2026, just before traveling to the Republican National Midterm Convention in Texas, Trump predicted that oil prices will "tumble downward" right after the election. At the time, global benchmark Brent crude futures had risen above $101 per barrel, marking a high not seen since July, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures exceeded $96 per barrel.

Trump attributed the sustained high energy prices to the protracted war with Iran, which has lasted seven months without a clear resolution in sight. He insisted that the conflict would end "immediately after the election," suggesting that Iran’s actions are partly aimed at influencing the election outcome. According to Trump, Iran prefers a weaker U.S. leadership that might allow Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons. He framed the conflict as a standoff where the U.S. is preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities while criticizing the possibility of a "weak group of people" coming to power after the midterms.

Throughout the conflict, Trump has repeatedly promised imminent peace deals with Iran, though none have materialized. Recently, his approach has shifted from diplomatic negotiations to a strategy focused on military pressure and economic sanctions designed to cripple Iran’s military operations and economy. The U.S. military reported destroying 10 Iranian oil tankers in one week, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Trump warned that such attacks would continue, underlying the ongoing volatility in the region.

Despite promising that gas prices will drop below $2 per gallon, Trump acknowledged the relief might not come before several weeks after the midterm elections. His latest remarks somewhat soften his previous confident statements that oil prices would "drop precipitously" following U.S. victory in the conflict. Energy analysts, like Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy, remain skeptical about these predictions, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the war and its impact on fuel costs. The drawn-out conflict and elevated energy prices continue to affect the political and economic climate as the midterms approach.