Former U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Iran regarding escalating activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected nuclear site near the heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Satellite images analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveal that construction and excavation work at the site have reached their highest levels ever in 2026. The U.S. fears that this activity could indicate efforts to rebuild Tehran’s nuclear program, with Trump threatening severe retaliation if Iran continues advancing operations there.

This development follows increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran marked by a series of attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for about 20% of the world’s oil shipments. Recently, Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and struck 10 vessels near the Strait, provoking U.S. forces to destroy five Iranian oil tankers in response. These incidents have heightened concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies and have pushed Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel.

Trump also predicted that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely to conclude before the U.S. midterm elections in November, stating that the war would probably end only afterward as Iran's resilience wanes. While acknowledging the short-term economic challenges this conflict poses to American consumers, Trump emphasized that preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons justifies these difficulties. The ongoing clashes have intensified geopolitical uncertainty and kept energy markets on edge due to the risk of further supply interruptions.

Energy analysts caution that the future trajectory of oil prices will heavily depend on external demand factors, notably China's purchasing behavior amid the crisis. Despite recent supply surprises, ING strategists warn that escalating hostilities could lead to tighter oil markets. As the confrontation between Tehran and Washington intensifies, global markets remain attentive to developments at Pickaxe Mountain and the volatile security situation in the Persian Gulf region.