The NBA is seriously considering expansion with new teams slated for Las Vegas and Seattle, potentially launching in the 2028-29 season. Commissioner Adam Silver has indicated the league hopes to finalize this decision by the end of 2026. While concerns about talent dilution across more teams exist, expansion could address challenges posed by the recent collective bargaining agreement (CBA), particularly the restrictions introduced around the salary cap’s second apron. This apron has made it difficult for teams to maintain rosters built around three max or near-max players, a structure many franchises have struggled to sustain.

The expansion teams will face uphill battles initially, beginning with an expansion draft where current teams will protect most of their key players, leaving the new teams to pick from less desirable or expiring contracts. In addition, these teams will operate under a reduced salary cap for their first two seasons—66⅔% of the full cap in year one and 80% in year two—limiting their ability to sign multiple max-contract stars early on. However, once they reach the standard salary cap by their third year, they will have more financial flexibility to attract top-tier talent, leveraging their fresh start in salary management.

The talent pool available to these franchises is bolstered by the number of players on two-way or minimum contracts, suggesting there is NBA-level skill waiting to be developed. Nevertheless, acquiring franchise-defining superstars like Victor Wembanyama or Luka Dončić remains unlikely through the expansion draft. These teams will likely rely heavily on the NBA draft for cornerstones, but recent reforms to the draft lottery could complicate landing high picks. Therefore, exploring trades and free agency aggressively will be essential for building competitive rosters in their initial years.

The introduction of new teams may indirectly diffuse some of the "big three" problem as the second apron and salary restrictions discourage teams from carrying multiple max players over extended periods. Expansion could provide additional high-level free agents more destinations, potentially increasing their market value and redistributing talent more evenly across the league. This coincides with the CBA expiring after the 2029-30 season, with potential changes looming, especially regarding the punitive second apron. As stars look for championship viability under these rules, more teams might avoid assembling costly superteams, balancing the league’s talent landscape over time.