Oil prices declined on Monday despite disruptions caused by missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia by Iran-backed Houthi forces over the weekend. Brent crude futures for November delivery dropped 1.54% to $102.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for October fell 1.69% to $98.60 per barrel. The market reacted to surprisingly robust Middle Eastern oil flows, which remained steady even with damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, according to a September 18 note from JPMorgan analysts.

JPMorgan reported that oil shipments in the region averaged 17.1 million barrels per day over the past ten days, a decline of 6.1 million barrels per day from the 2025 average but stronger than expected given the recent pipeline disruption. This resilience in supply has alleviated some immediate fears of shortages. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, affecting oil market sentiment amid threats and ongoing conflict between regional actors.

President Donald Trump, speaking in an interview with Fox News, indicated a heightened state of alert over the US-Iran conflict, stating he was in a “deciding mode” and that “very big things” would soon unfold. His remarks underscored the risk of further escalation in the region, which could impact oil exports and prices. Market observers emphasize that any worsening of shipping conditions or disruption to exports could tighten supply flows and drive prices higher.

Industry experts like Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, believe that oil prices will closely track developments related to export normalization and diplomacy. The fragile situation means that progress in diplomatic efforts could moderate prices, while setbacks or renewed conflict could quickly reverse gains and add upward pressure. Traders remain vigilant for signs of how the geopolitical landscape might influence physical oil markets in the near term.