Goldman Sachs projects that the June jobs report, scheduled for release on Thursday, could benefit from an unexpected boost linked to the 2026 World Cup. While economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate a gain of 115,000 nonfarm payrolls for June—a slowdown from May's 172,000 increase—Goldman's analysis suggests the event may have added around 40,000 jobs. This estimate is grounded in private payroll data from Homebase, a platform servicing small businesses, which indicates enhanced hiring activity in World Cup host cities.

The data reveals a smaller year-over-year decrease in employment for the 11 cities hosting World Cup games, with a 1.2% decline compared to a 3.5% drop in other cities. Significantly, the hospitality sector experienced a 9.5% rise in hiring during June, likely reflecting World Cup-related demand. Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels note that the World Cup’s positive employment effects are expected to be concentrated within leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, as well as trade and transportation industries.

Based on this information, Goldman predicts total nonfarm payroll growth could reach 140,000 jobs for the month, which, although lower than May's figures, would mark a considerable improvement over June 2025’s outcome when 20,000 jobs were lost. The firm also highlights that initial June payroll estimates tend to overstate job growth, with subsequent revisions often lowering the count, as has been true in the past four years.

Overall, the World Cup appears to have given the labor market a modest lift during June, particularly benefiting sectors closely tied to tourism and services. Goldman’s outlook suggests this global event helped offset some broader hiring slowdowns, resulting in a more resilient employment report than many had anticipated for the summer month.