Hyundai Motor is projected to surpass Ford Motor in U.S. vehicle sales for the first time in the third quarter of 2026, according to a forecast from Cox Automotive. Hyundai is expected to report a 6.5% year-over-year increase in sales, totaling approximately 511,421 units from July through September. Meanwhile, Ford’s sales are forecasted to decline by 7.1% during the same period, with an estimated 504,172 vehicles sold. This shift would position Hyundai as the third best-selling automaker in the U.S., trailing only General Motors and Toyota.

The automakers from Detroit, including Ford and GM, have struggled partly due to limited hybrid vehicle offerings, a segment growing in popularity amid rising gasoline prices. Cox Automotive analysts highlighted that Hyundai and its sister company Kia have capitalized on the hybrid market demand, boosting their sales significantly. For instance, Ford’s lineup includes hybrids like the Maverick and F-150 pickups, but GM offers hybrids only in niche models such as the Corvette, contributing to their weaker sales performance in this category.

Toyota Motor is also gaining ground on General Motors as it narrows the annual U.S. sales gap. Toyota is predicted to report a 2.2% rise in third-quarter sales to around 642,707 units, while GM is expected to see a 5.2% decline to 671,706 units. If Toyota surpasses GM in yearly sales, it would mark only the second time in history this has happened, the first being in 2021 amid production issues caused by supply chain disruptions.

Fuel prices averaging $4.48 per gallon nationwide continue to influence consumer preferences, affecting sales of large trucks and SUVs that Detroit automakers traditionally depend on. Additionally, GM, Ford, and Stellantis are renewing focus on vehicles with larger V-8 engines amid relaxed emissions regulations, a strategy that Cox analysts caution may not align with evolving buyer demands. Despite the challenges, Cox Automotive has raised its forecast for total new vehicle sales in the U.S. for 2026 by 2% to 16.1 million units, reflecting a resilient automotive market overall.