Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a stern warning to shipowners that any transit through the Strait of Hormuz without prior approval from Tehran is considered “unacceptable and dangerous.” This statement came in response to proposals suggesting alternative shipping routes bypassing Iran’s designated corridors. The IRGC emphasized that vessels must contact their naval forces via a specific communication channel before passing through the strait, or they risk facing enforcement actions. This assertion of control underscores Tehran’s intent to maintain authority over this strategically important maritime chokepoint.

Despite the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran last week aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, vessel traffic remains well below pre-pandemic levels. According to ship-tracking data provider MarineTraffic, recent transits have only modestly increased, with 93 ship movements reported over a recent weekend compared to over 100 daily before the outbreak of hostilities. While some commercial and energy-laden vessels have resumed crossings, ship operators are still proceeding cautiously amid ongoing conflict in the region.

Efforts to suggest alternative routes, including a southern passage along Omani waters that has been cleared of mines, have been rejected by Iran, which demands all ships adhere strictly to its authorized routes. The U.S. Treasury has also taken measures, sanctioning Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority in May and warning that Washington will not tolerate any tolling on the waterway. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made it clear that the U.S. intends to aggressively target entities involved in any attempts to impose fees for passage.

Industry experts warn that prolonged Iranian control over the strait could suppress future oil tanker traffic and disrupt global energy flows. Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets’ head of global commodity strategy, noted that any lasting Iranian influence could keep transit levels below their previous peaks, negatively impacting the volume of shipments through this critical artery. The situation remains volatile as regional conflicts continue, and the full reopening and normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz face significant uncertainty.