Three Iranian tankers have broken through the U.S. Navy’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in months, signaling a potential shift in oil exports from the region. The two supertankers, Diona and Hero 2, both owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company and sanctioned by the U.S., carried a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of crude oil past the blockade. A third Iran-linked tanker carrying an additional one million barrels also exited the blockade line recently, marking the first outbound shipment since the blockade was established.

This development follows a Memorandum of Understanding signed earlier this week between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending a nearly four-month conflict, with a formal signing scheduled in Geneva on Friday. The agreement is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift sanctions on Iranian oil sales, enabling Tehran to resume exports immediately. This waterway had been shut due to the ongoing tensions, disrupting about 20% of the global oil flow and stranding hundreds of ships, as the U.S. enforced naval blockades and Iran retaliated against vessels linked to adversary nations.

Shipowners are responding with cautious optimism; some are repositioning tankers toward Gulf ports in anticipation of increased demand for oil restocking. However, many remain hesitant due to persistent war-risk insurance premiums and uncertainty over the blockade’s permanence. Maritime analysts describe the market's reaction as “wary disbelief,” emphasizing that while the ceasefire offers relief, it is viewed as a fragile pause rather than a full return to normal operations. Insurers are demanding proof that the passage will remain secure before adjusting their risk assessments.

Despite the tentative optimism, actual traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to stay limited until the formal deal signing. The U.S. Navy has stressed that the blockade remains in effect until the agreement is officially enacted. Meanwhile, the backlog of tanker traffic is significant, with estimates suggesting that up to 118 loaded tankers could depart the region within 15 days following the formal deal. However, analysts predict that this will likely represent a one-time surge rather than a sustained resurgence in maritime activity, as shipowners continue to await clearer assurances of safe passage.