Autonomous vehicle company Aurora has set an ambitious goal to operate more than 30,000 self-driving trucks by the end of 2030, generating roughly $5 billion annually. This target follows their 2026 forecast of finishing the year with around 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate. Aurora’s CFO David Maday argues this projection is realistic given the scale of the overall truck market, noting that major manufacturers produce between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks annually. He insists the company’s plans are achievable rather than merely aspirational.

Investor reaction to Aurora’s long-term vision has been cautious, with shares dropping significantly after the company’s annual investor day in late September 2026. Despite the current skepticism, the company expects significant growth starting in 2027, projecting to expand its fleet from about 200 trucks to over 1,000 in just one year. Presently, Aurora operates a transportation-as-a-service model involving around 500 trucks that it owns and manages, charging customers approximately $2 per mile, which is comparable to traditional carrier rates.

The next phase for Aurora involves a shift to a driver-as-a-service model, where customers will purchase autonomous trucks and pay Aurora a fee of about $0.85 per mile to use its self-driving technology. In this model, the customers bear responsibility for truck ownership and maintenance while Aurora oversees the autonomous system. A key development driving this transition is the upcoming release of Aurora’s third-generation autonomous hardware, produced by partner Aumovio, which also finances and services the equipment, easing the company’s capital expenses.

Aurora plans to scale geographically by 2030, expanding from a limited Southern U.S. footprint to most of the continental United States. The company anticipates achieving breakeven gross margins by mid-2027 with around 500 trucks on the road, expecting cost efficiencies and margin improvements to accelerate thereafter. Beyond trucking, Aurora also intends to eventually enter the robotaxi market, signaling broader ambitions in autonomous mobility beyond freight.