Crude oil exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran war, largely due to U.S. military protection of shipments and the use of pipelines to reroute flows. According to tanker tracking firm Kpler, crude oil transiting the strait hit a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day as of Monday, matching prewar baselines. The Middle East region overall, including the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, surpassed prewar crude exports with a seven-day average of 19.5 million barrels per day, highlighting increased production and export efforts despite ongoing conflict.

However, the restoration of crude oil exports contrasts sharply with the situation for refined fuel products, which continue to experience significant supply constraints. Refined product shipments through Hormuz are currently about 677,000 barrels per day, far below the prewar figure of 3.6 million barrels per day. This disparity has contributed to a global fuel shortage, pushing U.S. diesel prices to record highs and threatening overall economic stability. The difficulties in refined fuel supply are exacerbated by Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries and Middle Eastern export limits.

Iran’s crude oil exports have plummeted further as the U.S. Navy enforces a blockade aimed at undermining Tehran’s revenue streams, with China expected to cease receiving Iranian oil within weeks. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, including Iran’s recent offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, have fallen through. The Trump administration has rejected such proposals and signaled intentions to escalate military action against Iran after the upcoming midterm elections, further heightening geopolitical tensions in the region.

To maintain the flow of crude oil despite the hostile environment, more than 70% of shipments now use a ship-to-ship transfer system off the coasts of the UAE and Oman, safeguarded by U.S. military assets. Additionally, pipelines operated by Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken on an increased share of exports by routing about 40% of Gulf oil around the strait, although these remain vulnerable to attack, as seen in recent drone strikes. This patchwork approach to securing oil exports is costly and uncertain, highlighting the risks to global oil supplies as diplomatic stalemates persist.