President Donald Trump indicated on July 8, 2026, that he is uncertain if the United States and Iran are on the verge of resuming a full-scale war after a recent escalation of military actions. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One after returning from the U.K., Trump revealed that U.S. forces had launched significant strikes against Iranian targets, asserting that the U.S. retaliated at a ratio of 20 hits to every Iranian attack. Despite this, he noted that Iran had reached out signaling a strong desire to negotiate a deal, though he expressed skepticism about Iran’s trustworthiness in honoring such an agreement.

The U.S. Central Command carried out additional strikes aimed at diminishing Iran’s capability to threaten commercial shipping in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. These actions came in response to attacks on three commercial vessels transiting this vital shipping route, which plays a key role in the global flow of oil. The U.S. military targeted around 170 Iranian military sites in the latest operations, while the U.S. Treasury Department revoked a waiver that had previously allowed Iran to sell oil, signaling a hardening stance.

Only weeks earlier, Washington and Tehran had reached a memorandum of understanding to cease hostilities, but at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, Trump questioned whether the fragile ceasefire was still intact. He bluntly stated that, from his perspective, the ceasefire is effectively over and voiced frustration with dealing with Iranian officials, dubbing such efforts a “waste of time.” In response, Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. strikes as violations of the recent agreement and reaffirmed its intent to protect national sovereignty by responding to aggressions.

The heightened tensions have had immediate market effects, with oil prices climbing modestly following the renewed conflict. As of July 9, Brent crude futures were trading above $78 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude hovered around $73.55 per barrel. The ongoing instability in the Middle East and risks to oil supply routes are contributing to uncertainty in global energy markets and could influence inflation and monetary policies further.