Anthropic is poised to launch an initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq with an eye-popping valuation of $2 trillion. This figure has drawn significant skepticism from independent research firm New Constructs, which estimates the artificial intelligence company is worth closer to $150 billion. New Constructs warns that the IPO could test "investor gullibility" given Anthropic's massive losses and revenue figures that pale in comparison with tech giants like Nvidia, which recently posted net income exceeding $190 billion.

The research group highlighted Anthropic’s steep operating losses, which reached $42 billion in 2025, despite generating $4.6 billion in revenue that year. Moreover, the firm pointed to the growing prevalence of open-source AI models as a threat to Anthropic’s profitability. According to New Constructs, this competitive landscape leaves the company without a viable business model, doubting its ability to deliver returns to public market investors amidst its lofty valuation ambitions.

David Trainer, founder of New Constructs, has a track record of issuing bearish views on questionable IPOs, including his earlier warnings about WeWork and Allbirds. Trainer views Anthropic's forthcoming offering as potentially one of the most precarious public market endeavors since it could primarily serve to provide liquidity to existing shareholders rather than create shareholder wealth. Despite his cautious stance, Trainer has acknowledged that market dynamics can defy expectations, as was the case with DoorDash’s successful public debut.

While Anthropic has not formally released its IPO prospectus, leaked financial data and media reports describe ambitious revenue targets, with suggestions the company could reach $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026. Still, New Constructs urges caution, citing both substantial financial risk and Anthropic’s own assertions regarding the potential existential threats posed by AI technology. The firm advises investors to weigh carefully the risks before participating in what it calls a "ridiculous" public offering.