A recent analysis by the New York Federal Reserve reveals that tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump’s administration were a significant driver of inflation on many common consumer goods between 2025 and early 2026. The Fed’s research focused on 67 categories of goods, finding that a 2.9 percentage point increase in inflation was directly attributable to these tariffs as of February 2026. Had these levies not been implemented, prices for these items would likely have decreased by almost 1% during the same period, indicating that inflation on these goods was primarily tariff-induced.

The study highlights the complexity of how tariffs influence consumer prices, showing that roughly two-thirds of the price increase came directly from the tariffs themselves. The remaining impact stemmed from secondary effects, such as increased costs for U.S. companies using imported parts, which then passed through to consumers. Researchers Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David Weinstein noted that the overall inflation impact from tariffs is more prolonged and widespread than just the direct tariff costs alone, suggesting lasting price effects for consumers.

Trump’s argument that companies would absorb tariff costs without raising prices is challenged by the study, which estimates that about 26% of tariff increases were passed on to consumers. Despite some tariffs being struck down by the Supreme Court earlier in 2026, prompting billions in retailer refunds, the White House intends to continue enforcing tariffs through alternative means. As of late 2026, many products still face tariffs around 10%, though these are generally lower than the previous rounds.

The study underscores the broad economic consequences of trade policies on everyday living expenses, particularly during Trump’s administration. Inflation for the goods studied peaked at the start of 2026, but the Fed projects that consumers will continue to bear elevated prices into 2027 due to ongoing tariff measures. This research offers critical insights into how trade actions translate into consumer price changes, informing debates on the costs and benefits of protectionist policies.