Following the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats have seized control of both the House and Senate, significantly increasing their influence over President Donald Trump’s agenda in Congress. This shift grants the party greater authority to scrutinize and potentially restrain Trump’s policies, particularly regarding ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. Experts highlight that while the president retains substantial control over foreign policy decisions, the new Democratic majority can leverage legislative, spending, and oversight powers to challenge and shape the administration’s approach.

The war in Iran, which escalated after U.S. and Israeli strikes in February, has become a central concern amid rising inflation, fuel costs, and food prices. Democrats are expected to attempt curbing Trump’s war powers by pushing votes and controlling war funding, but overriding a potential presidential veto demanding an end to U.S. involvement would require a challenging two-thirds majority. Analysts suggest Trump may pursue a final round of strikes, aiming for a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by 2027, even as speculation grows about cabinet reshuffles, such as replacing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Despite the congressional power shift, Trump is not viewed as a lame duck, since foreign policy execution largely remains in his hands. Increased congressional oversight and budgetary control could impose limits, particularly concerning Ukraine, where funding is mandated by law. The new Democratic-led Congress is expected to assert itself more actively compared to previous sessions, holding the administration accountable to existing legal frameworks. Observers predict Trump might face heightened difficulties in rallying congressional support for costly foreign ventures, though his penchant for bold geopolitical moves remains a concern.

The election outcomes also carry implications for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizing the significance of U.S. support amid uncertain prospects. While the Kremlin expressed hope that midterm results would not hinder Trump’s peace efforts, lawmakers’ control over appropriations could complicate the administration’s ability to back a favorable settlement. Some analysts caution about a “tail risk” of Trump pushing Ukraine toward compromises beneficial to Russia, but stronger European engagement and skeptical Republicans may act as counterbalances to such an outcome.