The MLB home run betting market has been in a slump recently, with four consecutive bets failing to hit following successful long-shot picks by Bryce Harper and Ozzie Albies on July 20. The season-to-date record for home run prop bets stands at 18 wins, 63 losses, and three no-bets, which still yields a modest profit for bettors placing $100 on each selection due to the attractive odds involved. Despite the recent dry spell, two promising home run bets have emerged for July 29, 2026, focused on young outfielders with favorable matchups and home run-friendly parks.

Chase DeLauter of the Cleveland Guardians is highlighted as a solid home run bet at +338 odds. The 24-year-old left-handed hitter has 11 homers in his rookie season, showing a particular knack for road home runs against right-handed pitching. His matchup is strong against Brady Singer, a right-handed pitcher with a 1.83 home runs allowed per nine innings rate, ranking third worst among probable starters. DeLauter also benefits from playing at Great American Ballpark, which ranks eighth in home run park factor since 2025, enhancing his chances to go deep.

Julio Rodriguez from the Seattle Mariners also stands out as a compelling bet at +302 odds. Although Rodriguez’s overall season power numbers aren’t eye-popping with 16 homers in 419 plate appearances, he has shown a propensity for hitting left-handed pitchers, with eight home runs against them this year and 24 since 2024. Tonight’s matchup features Eric Lauer, a southpaw who ranks second in home runs allowed per nine innings among probable starters at 2.20. Lauer has allowed 20 home runs this season, including four in his last three outings, making him vulnerable to power hitters like Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is further aided by playing at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, which leads major league parks with a 127 home run park factor since 2025. Favorable weather conditions with warm temperatures and wind blowing out to right field enhance his chances of homering again after his homer last night. Combining these factors gives both DeLauter and Rodriguez strong arguments as the best MLB home run bets on the slate for July 29, 2026, offering bettors enticing odds and potent matchups.