Carlos Alcaraz enters the 2026 U.S. Open as the defending men's singles champion with some significant challenges ahead. Having not played a competitive singles match since April due to a wrist injury, Alcaraz faces a tough draw. He starts against Roman Safiullin, ranked No. 98, and could face top American players like Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton in later rounds, with the potential semifinal against Novak Djokovic looming as a major hurdle. The path demands Alcaraz to regain full fitness and form to defend his title.

Tommy Paul, the No. 20 seed and a strong American contender, is seen as a key challenge in the fourth round. Experts like ESPN’s James Blake and Mary Joe Fernandez highlight Paul’s physicality, speed, and all-around game as factors that could force Alcaraz to play at his best. Though Alcaraz holds a favorable head-to-head record against Paul, the American has won twice on outdoor hard courts, setting the stage for a compelling battle that will test Alcaraz’s recovery and match readiness.

If Alcaraz advances past these Americans, he might face No. 8 seed Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals, who is favored by tennis insiders to make deep runs. In the semifinals, a highly anticipated clash with Novak Djokovic could take place, marking a continuation of their 5-5 career head-to-head rivalry. Djokovic, chasing a record 25th major title, also has a testing early draw. He may face the winner of a high-profile first-round match between former champions Stan Wawrinka and Matteo Berrettini, adding intrigue to his U.S. Open campaign.

Looking ahead to the potential final, Alcaraz could meet Alexander Zverev, the French Open champion this season. Alcaraz holds a slight edge over Zverev from previous encounters, including a five-set win in the Australian Open semifinals earlier in 2026. The tournament’s layout presents a tough but exciting challenge for Alcaraz’s title defense, as he navigates a draw with multiple top contenders, emerging American stars, and fierce rivals like Djokovic and Zverev waiting in the later stages.