The MLB home run bets have hit a rough patch lately, with only three successful picks out of 32 since July 20, dragging the overall record to 21-88 with three no-bets. This slump has erased prior profits, leaving bettors who wagered $100 on each pick down by $546. Before this cold streak, the bets were profitable with an 18-59 record and a $442 gain. Despite the bleak outlook, a few accurate calls in September could help recover losses before the regular season ends.

Two National League East left-handed hitters, Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies and Drake Baldwin of the Atlanta Braves, stand out as the best home run bets for September 8, 2026, with enticing odds above +400. Harper, 33, has blasted 27 homers in 144 games this season, 23 against right-handed pitchers, and boasts solid batted-ball metrics placing him among MLB’s better hitters. Philadelphia’s Great American Ball Park is highly favorable for homers, ranking fifth in park factor, and Harper faces pitcher Hayden Wesneski, who has allowed only two homers this season but both were to lefties.

Drake Baldwin, a 25-year-old catcher for the Braves, has hit 22 homers, 15 against right-handed pitching, including seven in the second half. His impressive batted-ball stats rank him in the top tier among qualified hitters, featuring a hard-hit rate over 50%. Baldwin’s matchup is particularly advantageous as he faces Freddy Peralta, a homer-prone right-hander who has yielded 23 homers this season with a high homer per nine innings rate. Playing at home in Truist Park, which has a respectable homer-friendly park factor, further boosts Baldwin’s chances.

Both Harper and Baldwin offer compelling home run prop bets on September 8 at competitive odds. Harper’s home run bet sits at +425 at Hard Rock Bet and similarly high odds at DraftKings, while Baldwin’s prop is +450 at Hard Rock Bet and +430 at FanDuel. Given their favorable splits, strong underlying performance metrics, supportive ballparks, and pitcher matchups, these two lefty sluggers represent promising opportunities to end the recent home run betting drought.