Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has shown signs of recovery following the interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran signed on June 17, 2026. In the week after the ceasefire was announced, 125 vessel transits were recorded, marking the highest weekly total since hostilities began in late February. This uptick was driven by tankers eager to move Gulf crude oil before the 60-day truce expires. Despite the progress, the flow remains below pre-war levels, with single-day crossings on June 24 accounting for just over half the traffic seen on the same date last year.

However, the fragile peace was disrupted on June 24 when the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely was struck by a projectile near Oman’s coast. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the attack, the first since the ceasefire took effect. This incident heightened uncertainty in the region and caused the United Nations to pause its evacuation plan for vessels. Compounding the situation, Iran mandated that all ships must use its northern route and comply with Iranian instructions, while the U.S. and Oman supported a southern corridor, creating competing navigational demands for vessel operators.

Navigating this contested waterway remains perilous, with portions still mined and no clear, universally accepted guidelines on safe passage. Shipping firms face the dilemma of either risking transit through contested waters or holding back shipments and risking market share loss. Many companies, including Singapore-based electronics manufacturer Bruce Tan’s firm, are cautiously resuming deliveries but in smaller quantities, while some also explore alternative routes to hedge against renewed closures. Insurance premiums for vessels passing through the Strait have surged, reflecting the heightened risks and ongoing business uncertainty.

Industry experts emphasize that while shipping volumes may continue to rise, the lack of clarity on navigation, enforcement of Iranian routing demands, and potential for further attacks cast a shadow over the recovery. Owners and insurers remain cautious, awaiting concrete agreements on safety measures and sanctions enforcement before fully committing to routes through the Strait. The situation underscores how the region’s strategic importance as a conduit for roughly 20% of global oil traffic continues to be challenged by geopolitical tensions and operational hazards.